The Brexit Referendum - An Explanation for People Who Want to Know What Really Happened

The Brexit Referendum: A Detailed Explanation

The Brexit referendum, held on June 23, 2016, stands as one of the most momentous events in recent British history. It not only marked a turning point in the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union but also revealed deep-seated divisions within British society. In this section, we delve deeper into the origins of the referendum, the key players and campaigns, the arguments presented, the aftermath, and the long-term implications for the UK.

Origins and Context: Euroscepticism and Political Pressures

The roots of the Brexit referendum can be traced back to the longstanding tradition of Euroscepticism within the Conservative Party and British society at large. Since the UK joined the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973, there had been a persistent and growing faction within British politics that viewed the European project with suspicion. Concerns ranged from issues of national sovereignty and democratic accountability to economic regulation and immigration policies.

Euroscepticism gained significant traction in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The Maastricht Treaty of 1992, which created the European Union and introduced the concept of European citizenship, was a particular flashpoint. Subsequent treaties, such as the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, further deepened European integration, intensifying the debate over the UK's place in the EU.

The rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), led by Nigel Farage, further amplified Eurosceptic voices. UKIP's singular focus on withdrawing from the EU resonated with a segment of the British electorate, and the party's increasing popularity exerted pressure on the Conservative Party to address the issue of EU membership more directly.

Cameron's Gamble

David Cameron's decision to promise a referendum was, in many respects, a strategic move aimed at unifying his party and countering the threat posed by UKIP. In his Bloomberg speech in January 2013, Cameron outlined his vision for a reformed EU and pledged to renegotiate the terms of the UK's membership, followed by an in-out referendum if the Conservatives won the 2015 general election. His intent was to secure a better deal for the UK within the EU and to settle the question of EU membership once and for all.

The Conservative Party's unexpected outright victory in the 2015 election compelled Cameron to honor his promise. He embarked on a tour of European capitals, negotiating a new settlement for the UK within the EU. The deal, agreed upon in February 2016, included concessions on issues like welfare payments to EU migrants and an exemption for the UK from the commitment to "ever closer union." However, many Eurosceptics considered these reforms insufficient.

The Campaigns

The "Remain" Campaign

The "Remain" campaign, officially known as Britain Stronger in Europe, was supported by David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne, the Labour Party (under Jeremy Corbyn, albeit with lukewarm enthusiasm), the Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party (SNP). The campaign focused on the economic benefits of EU membership, arguing that leaving the EU would jeopardize trade, investment, and jobs.

Key arguments from the "Remain" side included:

• Economic Stability: Membership in the EU's single market facilitated trade and investment, crucial for the UK's economic health.
• Security: Cooperation with European countries was vital for combating crime and terrorism.
• Global Influence: Being part of the EU amplified the UK's voice on the global stage.

Prominent figures such as former Prime Ministers John Major and Tony Blair also weighed in, emphasizing the risks of Brexit. Economists, business leaders, and international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), warned of the economic fallout from leaving the EU.

The "Leave" Campaign

The "Leave" campaign was divided into two main groups: Vote Leave, the official campaign led by figures such as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, and Leave.EU, spearheaded by UKIP's Nigel Farage. The "Leave" campaign's message centered on restoring national sovereignty, controlling immigration, and redirecting funds spent on EU membership to domestic priorities like the National Health Service (NHS).

Key arguments from the "Leave" side included:

• Sovereignty: Reclaiming legislative and judicial independence from Brussels.
• Immigration Control: Implementing stricter immigration policies and reducing the number of EU migrants.
• Economic Freedom: Negotiating trade deals independently and reducing regulatory burdens.

The slogan "Take back control" resonated with many voters who felt that decisions affecting the UK should be made domestically, not in Brussels. The claim that the UK was sending £350 million a week to the EU, which could be spent on the NHS instead, became one of the most controversial and impactful elements of the campaign.

The Referendum and Result

On June 23, 2016, the UK electorate went to the polls. The turnout was high, with 72.2% of eligible voters casting their ballots. The results were announced the following day: 52% voted to leave the EU, while 48% voted to remain. The result revealed stark regional, generational, and socioeconomic divides:

• England and Wales voted predominantly to leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain.
• Older voters tended to support Brexit, whereas younger voters were more likely to favor remaining in the EU.
• Urban areas and regions with higher levels of education and income leaned towards Remain, while rural areas and those with lower levels of education and income leaned towards Leave.

The immediate aftermath of the vote saw David Cameron announce his resignation as Prime Minister, stating that a new leader was needed to guide the country through the Brexit process. The financial markets reacted with volatility, the pound sterling fell sharply, and political uncertainty loomed large.

Negotiating Brexit

The May Premiership

Theresa May succeeded Cameron as Prime Minister in July 2016. Tasked with delivering Brexit, May faced the monumental challenge of negotiating the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. Her government triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, formally beginning the two-year countdown to Brexit.

May's approach to Brexit, encapsulated in her mantra "Brexit means Brexit," sought to balance the demands of hardline Brexiteers and more moderate voices within her party. Her priorities included controlling immigration, ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK, and striking a free trade deal with the EU.

The Withdrawal Agreement

The negotiations with the EU were complex and contentious. Key issues included the financial settlement (the so-called "divorce bill"), citizens' rights, and the status of the Irish border. The latter proved particularly challenging, given the need to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to maintain the peace established by the Good Friday Agreement.

In November 2018, May's government and the EU reached a draft Withdrawal Agreement, which included a controversial "backstop" arrangement to prevent a hard border in Ireland. The backstop would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU until a future trade deal could ensure an open border.

The agreement faced fierce opposition in Parliament. May's government suffered a historic defeat in January 2019 when the deal was rejected by a majority of 230 votes. Subsequent attempts to pass the deal also failed, leading to prolonged political deadlock and uncertainty.

The Johnson Era and Brexit Implementation

Theresa May's inability to secure parliamentary approval for her Brexit deal led to her resignation in June 2019. Boris Johnson, a prominent figure in the Leave campaign, won the Conservative leadership contest and became Prime Minister in July 2019.

Johnson adopted a more hardline stance, insisting that the UK would leave the EU by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. His approach included renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, particularly the backstop arrangement. In October 2019, Johnson and the EU agreed on a revised deal, which replaced the backstop with a new protocol for Northern Ireland, effectively keeping Northern Ireland aligned with certain EU regulations while the rest of the UK left the customs union.

The new deal faced significant opposition in Parliament, but Johnson's decision to call a snap general election in December 2019 proved decisive. The Conservatives won a substantial majority, enabling Johnson to pass the Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament. The UK officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, entering a transition period during which it continued to follow EU rules while negotiations for a future trade relationship took place.

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement

The transition period ended on December 31, 2020. Just days before the deadline, the UK and the EU reached a Trade and Cooperation Agreement, setting out the terms of their future relationship. The agreement covered trade in goods and services, cooperation on law enforcement, and other areas such as fisheries and data protection. While it avoided the chaos of a no-deal Brexit, it marked a significant change in the UK's relationship with its largest trading partner.

Long-term Implications of Brexit

Economic Impact

The economic impact of Brexit remains a topic of intense debate and analysis. In the short term, the uncertainty surrounding the referendum result led to market volatility and a decline in business investment. The depreciation of the pound increased the cost of imports, contributing to inflationary pressures.

Longer-term impacts are still unfolding. Proponents of Brexit argue that the UK will benefit from the ability to negotiate its own trade deals and regulatory independence. Critics, however, highlight the challenges of reduced access to the EU single market, which had facilitated trade, investment, and economic growth.

Political and Social Impact

Politically, Brexit has reshaped the landscape of British politics. The referendum exposed and exacerbated divisions within the country, between different regions, generations, and social classes. These divisions have influenced subsequent elections and political discourse, contributing to a more polarized and fragmented political environment.

Brexit also had significant implications for the unity of the United Kingdom. Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, has seen renewed calls for independence, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) arguing that Brexit fundamentally changes the terms of the 2014 independence referendum. In Northern Ireland, concerns about the impact of Brexit on the peace process and the status of the Irish border have fueled political tensions.

Identity and International Relations

Brexit has prompted a broader reflection on national identity and the UK’s place in the world. For many, the decision to leave the EU was driven by a desire to reclaim national sovereignty and control. However, it has also led to questions about what it means to be British in a globalized world and how the UK should navigate its relationships with other countries.

Internationally, Brexit has altered the UK's foreign policy landscape. The UK now seeks to redefine its global role, with a focus on bilateral trade agreements and partnerships beyond Europe. The concept of "Global Britain" emphasizes the UK's ambitions to be a leading player in global trade, security, and diplomacy.

Conclusion

The Brexit referendum was a watershed moment in British history, marking the end of the UK’s membership in the European Union and ushering in a new era of political and economic challenges. David Cameron’s decision to call the referendum was driven by a complex interplay of political pressures and strategic calculations, ultimately resulting in a vote that has reshaped the UK’s trajectory.

The campaigns leading up to the referendum were highly polarized, reflecting deep divisions within British society. The outcome and the subsequent negotiations highlighted the complexities and uncertainties of disentangling a 40-year relationship with the EU.

As the UK continues to navigate its post-Brexit future, the long-term implications of the referendum will become clearer. The Brexit saga underscores the profound and lasting impact of democratic decisions and the importance of political leadership in guiding a nation through periods of profound change.

This blog entry is neutral and only focuses on the events that occurred during the Brexit referendum. They do not express any opinion.